Search results for "panel regression"
showing 3 items of 3 documents
A quest between fiscal and market discipline
2023
Fiscal rules are typically seen as government constraints. Yet, the extent to which they are substituted or complemented by market discipline (especially, during financial stress) remains unexplored. Using data for 71 countries over the period 1985–2015, we estimate an “augmented” fiscal reaction function to assess the impact of both fiscal and market discipline. We find that different market signals influence fiscal policy, but fiscal discipline depends on market incentives. In the EU and the OECD, market signals complement fiscal rules. These are less effective in the EMU and non-OECD countries that are “debt intolerant”. Yet, there are unintended consequences: (i) neither output and debt…
Political risk and export promotion: evidence from Germany
2008
Political risk represents an important hidden transaction cost that reduces international trade. This paper investigates the claim that German public export credit guarantees (Hermes guarantees) mitigate this friction to trade flows and hence promote exports. We employ an empirical trade gravity model, where we explicitly control for political risk in the importing country in order to evaluate the effect of export guarantees. The idea behind export promotion through public export credit agencies (ECAs) is that the private market is unable to provide adequate insurance for all risks associated with exports. As a consequence, firms' export activities are limited in the absence of insurance pr…
The Analysis of the Digital Economy and Society Index in the EU
2019
Abstract The paper analyzes the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), which characterizes the development of digital economy. Based on the data of 28 European countries for 2013–2018, using the panel regression, we studied the influence of the consumption index growth by the purchasing power parity and unemployment among the active population on the structural units of DESI. It is shown that a 1% increase in the consumption index results in about 0.2 increase in the DESI, and an increase in unemployment by 1% leads to about 0.2 DESI decline. It is also shown that the 98% value of DESI is actually determined by its previous trends, and therefore it is impossible to increase this index ra…